Why Tesla will never be Apple


I regularly argue with my partners about how amazing Tesla is or isn’t. We all agree Tesla’s technology and product are a leap forward, but the question is whether the company will become a significant or even dominant worldwide auto player (and justify its orbital valuation).  Despite its buzz, Tesla has only a bit more than 1% of the US auto market, though ~40% of the US electric car market. It is easy to analogize Tesla to Apple with the latter’s incredible iPhone tech and product, which consistently holds a 30% to 40% market share after initially creating the smart phone market (and killing the feature phone market).  To perfect the analog, the story would play out like this: most of the 98% of the US market that is now gas or hybrid will become electric in 10 years, and Tesla will continue to be a dominant player…

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